I read this morning that the average shift red-blue in special elections this year is even bigger so there should be a lot of worried R-Representatives.
I think it has to be a bit hard for GOP folks to say to their constituents, look what I've done for you..I've increased the prices of everything because of the tariffs, I passed a budget with the highest deficit every, I support a pedophile, I took away your health care and special ed services for your kids and when I felt like it I took away your food stamps, and if you're a farmer I may have totally put you out of business. BUT Donald trump got to go play gold every weekend with your tax dollars. So you should vote for me because I don't like homosexuals or anyone with non white skin.
Well said, and of course the list could go on and on but let’s add “I pardoned literally thousands of violent offenders, including former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández — a man convicted for massive cocaine trafficking tied to U.S. drug markets, while pretending to protect us from “narcoterrorists” by committing war crimes on the seas.”
The GOP has been consoling itself with the idea that special elections are not predictive of general elections since Democrats also did really well in special elections throughout 2024 but then fell short last November.
Special elections do tend to attract more educated and engaged voters, so thatt explains some of the democratic over-performance. But here's the thing - Republicans spent a boat load of money to get GOP voters to the polls on election day when they realized this special election might not be a cakewalk for their GOP candidate.
And that effort undoubtedly helped with GOP turnout; in fact, the turnout for Tuesday's special election only fell short of the 2022 midterm turnout by less than 2000 votes!! So this blows the "only the most engaged voters vote in special elections" argument right out of the water.
For anyone who likes to dig into the data, I highly recommend listening to the most recent episode of the Downballot's weekly podcast. The first half is about Aftyn's race and the implications it may have in the midterms:
Thank you, Jess. I was so disheartened when I saw the election result this morning, so it's really good to read your take on the situation. Also helpful was The Guardian article about the drunk raccoon in the Virginia liquor store.
I’m with you Jess. Run everywhere. Get people excited, involved and invested in candidates at the local level. We moved from Texas to New Mexico four years ago. We’re all Blue here in NM but I still follow the candidates back in Texas where I believe that there are a number of MAGA officeholders who should be thinking about retiring and spending more time with their families.
That's my bother's college town. He texted the family, "Well, Ashland's now international news." A much-needed laugh. And for us blue voters in our VERY red Virginia county, Aftyn is a rock star!
I got goose bumps reading this Jess - I'm from New Hampshire, in a county that is traditionally blue in a somewhat red state. We have a trump lovin' governor - she needs to go!!! I love your fighting, never-give-up spirit!!! You are making a difference. Whenever the subject of substacks come up in conversation, I tell people they need to subscribe to yours for a dose of optimism!
Yep! That’s why I’ve been supporting Blue Missouri and Run for Something….change America from the ground up with multiple fracture points. Thank you for your perspective. It’s so important!
You arejust terrific!!! What a wonderful column you produced today--well, really, EVERY day -- to give encouragement and really solid hope amid all of the craziness of the times we are living through right now. Many, many thanks!!!
What you need to know about this election in Tennessee is that it is one of the districts created to gerrymander moderate Jim Cooper out of a seat. Nashville is solidly Democratic and the Republican state leaders always try to control Nashville. All the suburban and rural districts voted Republican in this election, but I do not know about reported vote totals.
The interesting thing about the commercials was that the Republican, an operative in the Lee administration, shifted from talking about immigrants and trans people to talking about how he was bring down prices.
The President doesn't seem to think that it is a real word, and while the rest of his party can talk about it, they won't do anything about it unless they are just playing the shell game. #EndTrickeDown
When the orange felon slaps the word hoax on something you can be sure that the situation is the real deal, like when Russia helped him win the first time.
One element of "affordability" I don't see people talking about is insurance prices... the insurance we are required by law to have - house and car - but have no control over how much they cost!
Well, it was no accident that Tennessee libraries were forced to close for a couple of days before the election to pull out "DEI" materials that one of its elected officials claims violate the president's ridiculous executive order. The state libraries are NOT funded by the federal government.
And what the heck is a centrist anyway? G. Elliott Morris at the Substack "Strength in Numbers" (invaluable for solid data) noted that average voters could care less about labels. What they care about is how their issues will be addressed. People who voted for Aftyn's opponent are about to find out that their issues are NOT going to be addressed as their healthcare spikes, and the horrible cuts of the Big Ugly Bill start to hit. Maybe they will be wiser in 2026, or desperate enough to try someone who will speak up for them.
A centrist is what I was before GB, Jr., Ashcroft, Ron Dumsfeld, etc., said I was a traitor for opposing Iraq II, or before Reagan started doing his disgusting "I'm not going to say the 'L' word" schtick, before Laffer, Norquist, and Limbaugh, before 50 years of Republicans insisted that I'm not a real American because I didn't buy their hateful and stupid bullshit. Nowadays, I'm a radical antifascist and proud of it.
Nah, Van Epps won with wealthy suburbanites. They'll be fine, and they don't give a shit about affordability. He cleaned up in Williamson county, which is the wealthiest county in Tennessee. Truly, they could care less.
Thanks for your consistent “cup-half-full” comments that help us remember that “steady as she goes” is the most effective strategy. I live in central Tennessee, and the results of this race are encouraging … though I would have loved to see a different winner, for sure. Love reading your stuff, Jess!! Thanks.
Since this was a special election, Epps will have to run again in November for the next full term. I’m thinking she will do better then. Hoping she runs against him again.
If only those elections remain honest. In the mid-terms last year and in special elections, there have been no claims (that I've heard anyway) of actual meddling as I still expect the neo-fascists to attempt). Let's keep and increase our vigilance!
I read this morning that the average shift red-blue in special elections this year is even bigger so there should be a lot of worried R-Representatives.
I think it has to be a bit hard for GOP folks to say to their constituents, look what I've done for you..I've increased the prices of everything because of the tariffs, I passed a budget with the highest deficit every, I support a pedophile, I took away your health care and special ed services for your kids and when I felt like it I took away your food stamps, and if you're a farmer I may have totally put you out of business. BUT Donald trump got to go play gold every weekend with your tax dollars. So you should vote for me because I don't like homosexuals or anyone with non white skin.
Well said, and of course the list could go on and on but let’s add “I pardoned literally thousands of violent offenders, including former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández — a man convicted for massive cocaine trafficking tied to U.S. drug markets, while pretending to protect us from “narcoterrorists” by committing war crimes on the seas.”
Robert Arnold also provided an insightful perspective on the election result:
https://substack.com/@defiance13/note/p-180576380?r=2rctb
The GOP has been consoling itself with the idea that special elections are not predictive of general elections since Democrats also did really well in special elections throughout 2024 but then fell short last November.
Special elections do tend to attract more educated and engaged voters, so thatt explains some of the democratic over-performance. But here's the thing - Republicans spent a boat load of money to get GOP voters to the polls on election day when they realized this special election might not be a cakewalk for their GOP candidate.
And that effort undoubtedly helped with GOP turnout; in fact, the turnout for Tuesday's special election only fell short of the 2022 midterm turnout by less than 2000 votes!! So this blows the "only the most engaged voters vote in special elections" argument right out of the water.
For anyone who likes to dig into the data, I highly recommend listening to the most recent episode of the Downballot's weekly podcast. The first half is about Aftyn's race and the implications it may have in the midterms:
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/gop-in-disarray-after-tennessee-special
Thank you, Jess. I was so disheartened when I saw the election result this morning, so it's really good to read your take on the situation. Also helpful was The Guardian article about the drunk raccoon in the Virginia liquor store.
I read that drunk raccoon article from top to bottom. It made my day too.😂
Where's a link to the drunk raccoon story?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/dec/03/drunk-raccoon-virginia-liquor-store
Thank you! I hadn't seen this on my morning feed (I do subscribe to The Guardian.)
Thanks. Second best comment on the raccoon story [re pigs also indulging in alcohol]:
One camper said the pig drank all 18 beers, then got
involved in an altercation with a cow.
LOL!
OMG! Too funny!
I hear the raccoon has a drinking problem and has entered raccoon rehab.
I’m with you Jess. Run everywhere. Get people excited, involved and invested in candidates at the local level. We moved from Texas to New Mexico four years ago. We’re all Blue here in NM but I still follow the candidates back in Texas where I believe that there are a number of MAGA officeholders who should be thinking about retiring and spending more time with their families.
That's my bother's college town. He texted the family, "Well, Ashland's now international news." A much-needed laugh. And for us blue voters in our VERY red Virginia county, Aftyn is a rock star!
I haven't laughed such a joyous laugh in a long, long time!
I got goose bumps reading this Jess - I'm from New Hampshire, in a county that is traditionally blue in a somewhat red state. We have a trump lovin' governor - she needs to go!!! I love your fighting, never-give-up spirit!!! You are making a difference. Whenever the subject of substacks come up in conversation, I tell people they need to subscribe to yours for a dose of optimism!
❤️❤️❤️
Something to remember is that the MAGAts got into power over time. We can do it too!
I agree completely. You keep us positive with that spirit of determination ! Well done!
Yep! That’s why I’ve been supporting Blue Missouri and Run for Something….change America from the ground up with multiple fracture points. Thank you for your perspective. It’s so important!
Thank you!!!
My father was a civil engineer. Your "crack in the beam" analogy would have him stomping his feet and shouting with glee.
FWIW, I'm glad he passed before Trump "came down the elevator." I miss him, just the same.
We can do this!
You arejust terrific!!! What a wonderful column you produced today--well, really, EVERY day -- to give encouragement and really solid hope amid all of the craziness of the times we are living through right now. Many, many thanks!!!
Thank you for this inspiring essay. I sure hope Aftyn runs again.
For Senator and kick out Marsha Blackburn 💙
What you need to know about this election in Tennessee is that it is one of the districts created to gerrymander moderate Jim Cooper out of a seat. Nashville is solidly Democratic and the Republican state leaders always try to control Nashville. All the suburban and rural districts voted Republican in this election, but I do not know about reported vote totals.
The interesting thing about the commercials was that the Republican, an operative in the Lee administration, shifted from talking about immigrants and trans people to talking about how he was bring down prices.
I think we are going to hear Republicans talk more and more about affordability…
The President doesn't seem to think that it is a real word, and while the rest of his party can talk about it, they won't do anything about it unless they are just playing the shell game. #EndTrickeDown
Which will infuriate Orange Julius, who has declared that 'affordability' is a Democratic hoax.
When the orange felon slaps the word hoax on something you can be sure that the situation is the real deal, like when Russia helped him win the first time.
Jon, more accurately, a “Democrat” hoax. 🤬
One element of "affordability" I don't see people talking about is insurance prices... the insurance we are required by law to have - house and car - but have no control over how much they cost!
So the Republican figured he needed to use the Democrats talking points in order to win. Very telling
Also interesting that they shut up about immigrants and trans people, preferring rather to just call Behn radical
Well, it was no accident that Tennessee libraries were forced to close for a couple of days before the election to pull out "DEI" materials that one of its elected officials claims violate the president's ridiculous executive order. The state libraries are NOT funded by the federal government.
they are creating their own fractures as well through their insatiable greed and astonishing incompetence. Keep the faith -- and thank you, Jess!
"....the Democrats who think a centrist would have done better have had their head in the clouds for a decade."
I would locate the position of their heads as somewhere considerably lower and rearward of the clouds.
😂
And what the heck is a centrist anyway? G. Elliott Morris at the Substack "Strength in Numbers" (invaluable for solid data) noted that average voters could care less about labels. What they care about is how their issues will be addressed. People who voted for Aftyn's opponent are about to find out that their issues are NOT going to be addressed as their healthcare spikes, and the horrible cuts of the Big Ugly Bill start to hit. Maybe they will be wiser in 2026, or desperate enough to try someone who will speak up for them.
A centrist is what I was before GB, Jr., Ashcroft, Ron Dumsfeld, etc., said I was a traitor for opposing Iraq II, or before Reagan started doing his disgusting "I'm not going to say the 'L' word" schtick, before Laffer, Norquist, and Limbaugh, before 50 years of Republicans insisted that I'm not a real American because I didn't buy their hateful and stupid bullshit. Nowadays, I'm a radical antifascist and proud of it.
Right, and Republicans call all Dems socialists and communism’s radicals, regardless of their actual positions.
Nah, Van Epps won with wealthy suburbanites. They'll be fine, and they don't give a shit about affordability. He cleaned up in Williamson county, which is the wealthiest county in Tennessee. Truly, they could care less.
Yup
Thanks for your consistent “cup-half-full” comments that help us remember that “steady as she goes” is the most effective strategy. I live in central Tennessee, and the results of this race are encouraging … though I would have loved to see a different winner, for sure. Love reading your stuff, Jess!! Thanks.
Very great race in TN that indeed caused a stress fracture. One at a time, all the time.
Since this was a special election, Epps will have to run again in November for the next full term. I’m thinking she will do better then. Hoping she runs against him again.
If only those elections remain honest. In the mid-terms last year and in special elections, there have been no claims (that I've heard anyway) of actual meddling as I still expect the neo-fascists to attempt). Let's keep and increase our vigilance!
A 'crack' is like a stream that turns into a river...a gushing river!