Harris Could Take...Iowa?

The Selzer Poll and Rural Organizing

Let me start by saying that I am not a data person. Numbers make my head hurt. I am a narrative person. I am full of the stories of rural people and rural areas and rural organizing.

I also know a lot about the people in Iowa. I live three miles from the IA border and I frequently speak in the state. There is a reason people who know numbers and assemble polls are talking about Iowa today.

The Des Moines Register headline:

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.

The nationally recognized Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris picking up support from women to surpass Donald Trump in a ruby-red state he has won twice.

The Selzer Poll shows something I have been talking about for a few years. The story of organizing in rural spaces and the stories of the women who make it happen.

The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris. 

“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Ann Selzer said of the numbers.

I know this intuitively. I know that because I have been traveling into Iowa to speak to groups large and small for two years. I have been in small towns and big cities across the state and I know who is doing the organizing…

It’s the women.   

I was in Howard County, Iowa a year ago. I was invited by a local Howard County Democrat, Laura Hubka. The entire county has fewer than 10K people.

Laura and her group organized a potluck dinner with me as the keynote speaker and several candidates driving from across the state to talk politics and what sort of shot the Democrats had. The community center was full and as I drove back to Laura’s farmhouse to stay the night, I thought about the courage it takes to have a meeting in a rural space when you might only have ten folks show up. Laura did it anyway.

I spoke in Davis County, Iowa almost two years ago. We met at the fairgrounds in the building next to the Swine Pavilion. I was asked to come and speak on state politics including Kim Reynold’s school voucher scheme and the Iowa abortion ban. I sat down to another potluck with midwestern sushi — a pickle slathered with cream cheese and rolled up in a piece of ham, sliced into little sushi rolls. I washed it down with lemonade and made sure to snag a Scotcharoo before I spoke.

The abortion ban was the topic of conversation with the women in this group, and I have news for those politicians going around thinking that abortion bans are only relevant to women of child-bearing age…they are wrong.

Women know that abortion bans impact every part of our lives. We know bans drive OBGYNs out of our states making any gynecological care difficult. We are losing women’s healthcare in states with bans. Rural women are hit particularly hard with an abortion ban.

Fairgrounds, Davis County, Iowa.

I drove from Davis County to Johnson County the next day. I was invited to be the Keynote speaker at a large event in Johnson County, Iowa. It was the annual BBQ held at the fairgrounds as well. This was a big event with several special guests including the Iowa Democratic Chair, Rita Hart and Congressional candidate Christina Bohannan. Again, the topic that most women were concerned about? Abortion and reproductive healthcare. I spoke on the issue at length and grabbed a piece of butter cake on the way out.

The women who saw me out the door hugged me and told me that their daughters and granddaughters would not suffer the health repercussions that an abortion ban ushers in. That they would do whatever they had to do to make sure their children would be safe in Iowa.

Here’s the thing that a lot of pollsters have been getting wrong: they don’t think abortion will be the reason that older women choose to vote for a Democrat. And I know that isn’t true. I have talked to hundreds of folks on the ground in places like Iowa. I’ve spoken to so many women.

Abortion may be seen as a political strategy to some, but it is life or death for women and girls.

I spoke in Mt Ayr, Iowa last year. The population is 1600. I was again summoned by the Ringgold County Democrats led by a woman. We met in a woman-owned bookstore. There was wine and food and desserts and they gave me one of my favorite t-shirts. It says “Hard Working Rural Democrat” and I wear it often.

Over half of the folks who showed up to this Mt Ayr event were teachers. That’s very often the case in the spaces I travel to speak…they are quiet, but they always show up. You’d think with all of those teachers that the topic would be public schools and that is indeed where we started, but the Q and A session turned into a forum on abortion bans. Most of the women at the event were grandmothers — they worried that their daughters would need reproductive care and could die waiting for it under an abortion ban.

That is a fair worry. A worry that women have been dealing with since the creation of the United States.

“I desire you would remember the ladies and be more generous and favorable to them than your ancestors. Do not put such unlimited power into the hands of the husbands. Remember, all men would be tyrants if they could. If particular care and attention is not paid to the ladies, we are determined to foment a rebellion, and will not hold ourselves bound by any laws in which we have no voice or representation.”

~Abigail Adams to her husband John Adams, 1776.

We have been fighting for equal rights under the law for hundreds of years.

I have been in Council Bluffs. I have spoken in Iowa City. I traveled to Sioux City. I have been to Mount Pleasant. I have traveled the state for the past two years and I can tell you that while I am excited to see the data on Iowa, I have been telling you the stories for a while now. The rural stories — the organizing stories.

The poll reinforces what we are seeing on the ground.

The Selzer Poll shows that Trump still leads in rural spaces in Iowa, but here is what I know: he’s losing his grip on those folks. And the reason? Women voters. Rural women voters.

The Republican ban on abortion was a step too far for most women…even for Independent and Republican voters. Especially with those rural voters who believe in limited government. Who believe that lawmakers don’t belong in doctor’s offices. Who believe in freedom.

I also have to take every poll with a grain of salt.

We know that polls don’t win elections — voters will decide who takes the Presidency on Tuesday. But, here is what I am telling you; the vibes have changed. I am in the rooms and you have a reason to be hopeful. You have reason to think Iowa may just go for Harris and wonder if it can happen there, where else may it happen?

I know that the women are making it happen. Boys, look away while I tell a funny story. Recently, I was at an event with Fred Wellman…he doesn’t speak at small rural events as often as I do. He said of this particular event: “This is running so well. We are on time and there is a schedule of events and food too.”

I told him. “You know why, right? Women organized the event.” He laughed and then realized how truthful I was. I then told him about the one event I have attended in the last two years that was organized by a man. I knew it as soon as I arrived because there was no water, no coffee, and no sweet treats.

True story.

Women are taking the lead in this election and it’s because we have everything to lose. Our lives are on the line. Our children and grandchildren will suffer the consequences of a Trump win.

Women will organize events and knock doors and make calls and participate as election judges and create GOTV events and we will also feed you. We will give you information and warm your belly. Women are driving this election and it’s being done in a particularly feminine fashion.

This is the year of the woman. The stars have aligned. I am optimistic but a little scared. Excited but pragmatic.

If Iowa can go for Harris, any state can go for Harris. The women are working. The women are voting. We can do this.

~Jess

P.S. Thank you to all of the male allies. We couldn’t do this without you. Also, remember the snacks when you organize :)